May 5, 2008
South Carolina confirmed U.S. Sen. Barack Obama as a major political force, a candidate who could not only win over white voters in Iowa but generate a wave of enthusiasm among black voters in the Deep South.
But neighboring North Carolina, which holds its primary Tuesday, could erase that profile and loosen what was only recently seen as Obama's unbreakable grip on his party's presidential nomination.
Consequently, South Carolinians who had volunteered with both campaigns are heading to North Carolina to help a resurgent Clinton or a reeling Obama.
Polls have shown the race between Obama of Illinois and U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York tightening in North Carolina. His once 25-point lead is down to 12, according to Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling. A recent SurveyUSA poll has Obama leading by only 5 percentage points.
"Symbolically, as tight as this race is, any loss by either candidate is a problem," said Blease Graham, a political science professor at USC. "For either candidate, a loss raises questions, and a win is important."
While Clinton appears to be within striking distance of a win in North Carolina, she still faces a daunting task in trying to erase Obama's lead in delegates, which are awarded based on where and how much support a candidate earns in primaries and caucuses.
With its large number of black and college-educated voters - groups that backed Obama in other primaries - North Carolina had seemed a safe bet for him.
But that was before he stumbled in Pennsylvania, where more than a few people were offended by Obama's claim that tough economic times made some "bitter" and prone to clinging to guns and religion. Clinton rode those remarks, along with strong support from blue-collar white voters, to a 10 percentage point win.
Obama also has been hurt by comments from his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, which widely were seen as unpatriotic. Obama has split with Wright, who presided over his wedding and baptized his children. But that has not answered questions in the minds of some voters who wonder why the senator was ever associated with Wright or was for so long.
Against that backdrop, the North Carolina primary looms particularly large for Obama.
Many of those who helped him soundly defeat Clinton in the S.C. primary in January have gone to North Carolina to make sure their man is victorious.
Anton Gunn, a past and current candidate for a seat in the S.C. General Assembly who supports Obama, said about 40 S.C. precinct captains and leaders agreed to take several people each to North Carolina to help the senator's efforts there.
The campaign is funneling volunteers from South Carolina north on a geographical basis, Gunn said.
Columbia volunteers are heading to Charlotte. Charleston and Myrtle Beach volunteers are going to Wilmington. Florence aides are going to Fayetteville, and volunteers in the Greenville/Spartanburg area are being dispatched to Asheville.
State Sen. Darrell Jackson, D-Richland, one of Clinton's most prominent supporters in South Carolina, said some of her backers here are heading to North Carolina to help her, too.
In addition to North Carolina, the candidates also are squaring off in Indiana. But an Obama loss in North Carolina, where he had such a large lead in the polls, would be more surprising than a Clinton win in Indiana.
USC's Graham noted Tuesday's primaries are the first since Obama publicly broke with Wright.
"We might learn whether that was tactically a good decision," Graham said. "Given the attention of the media, given his action in that regard, we'll learn whether voters will start to validate that or if it will be an ongoing question."
Gunn said he does not think the Wright controversy or consternation over the senator's "bitter" remarks will have lasting damage.
"I don't think they changed any votes," Gunn said. "If you were for Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton, I don't think that changed."
