February 4, 2008
On Tuesday — Super Tuesday, Super Duper Tuesday or whatever you want to call it — Republican and Democratic voters in more than 20 states will make their presidential picks.
And while South Carolina voters already had their shot last month, many here will watch with eyes wide open.
For Republicans, the outcome will decide whether Arizona Sen. John McCain can maintain his front-runner role — and possibly even deliver a knockout blow. If he does, it would extend South Carolina's 28-year-long streak of supporting the ultimate Republican nominee.
For Democrats, the outcome will show whether much of the rest of the nation is as enthusiastic as South Carolina was for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, whose 2-to-1 landslide victory here over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton might have given him a crucial boost.
In both cases, if the South Carolina winner ultimately wins, so does the state.
"No. 1, it's an advantage in the sense that whoever becomes president may see South Carolina as a state to which they're indebted," College of Charleston political science professor Bill Moore said. "No. 2, it could reinforce the image of South Carolina as an important state in getting the party's nomination down the road. Of course on the Republican side, that's been the case every time since 1980."
If Obama wins, then Democrats can begin marking a similar trend, Moore said. "This was Obama's first huge victory."
State Democratic Party Chairwoman Carol Fowler said South Carolina Democrats will throw results-watching parties Tuesday just like they did for the state's Jan. 26 primary.
"We'll all be very interested in how it turns out," she said. We're just standing by. We're watching."
State GOP Chairman Katon Dawson would not say whether the South Carolina GOP would see its future role in presidential politics diminished if McCain doesn't prevail. "That's hypothetical, so I'm not ready to look at that," he said.
McCain scored a narrow win in the state over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney finished fourth behind former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
Charleston County GOP Chairwoman Lin Bennett said if McCain doesn't ultimately win the nomination, that shouldn't hurt South Carolina's chances to retain its first-in-the-South primary position.
"This is such an odd campaign year. It's hard to take that and compare it to what's been normal," she said. "I don't think we'll be in this position again for 60 years."
Fowler also de-emphasized the importance that Obama's capturing the nomination would have for the state's future role in picking the president.
She said the question will be moot in 2012 because she expects the Democratic nominee to win in November.
She also said South Carolina's role in future Democratic primaries will be shaped more by other factors than its reputation for picking the ultimate nominee — factors such as the influence of Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and other state party leaders.
Dorchester County Democratic Chairman A.J. Glover said he vacillates on whether it's important for his party to settle on its nominee sooner rather than later.
"This week, it seems like the candidates are playing nice and trying to bring everyone together," he said. "But if the candidates are going back and forth and driving a wedge between this faction of the party and that faction of the party, you want to get a nominee as soon as possible so we can move on."
Moore said he doesn't expect Tuesday to be decisive, particularly on the Democrats' side, but he does expect it will shift the media focus from who's won which state to who has the most delegates.
The Post and Courier