SCDems News
New Hampshire in spotlight; Results could shape tenor of S.C.'s upcoming primaries
January 8, 2008
All South Carolina eyes will be on the Granite State tonight, where voters’ decisions in the nation’s first presidential primary of 2008 are likely to influence the impact South Carolina’s primaries will have later this month.
Depending on what happens, S.C. may not anoint an eventual nominee as it has done historically, especially on the Republican side.
For the Democrats, another win for Illinois U.S. Sen. Barack Obama greatly increases pressure on rival U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York. Experts say an Obama win also would put pressure on former N.C. U.S. Sen. John Edwards, who is running third in his native South Carolina.
For the Republicans, a win for U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona hurts former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign, validates former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s strategy to compete in big states only and leaves the GOP race even more wide open.
"We will have to see what happens on the ground, but South Carolina will be important in all regards," said Bruce Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University. But, "with this mixed result, (of projected wins by McCain and Obama in New Hampshire), Feb. 5 may trump what happens in South Carolina."
As the campaigns turn South, McCain and Obama lead the latest New Hampshire polls �" Democrat Obama by significantly larger margins than Republican McCain.
"Right now, we have the wind at our backs," said Kevin Griffis, Obama's S.C. campaign spokesman, who also said Obama will campaign Thursday in Charleston. "But we are not taking anything for granted. One thing about this campaign, it was built for the long haul."
Clinton's S.C. campaign has echoed that sentiment, and Monday it denied a whisper campaign that said if Clinton does not win today, she may skip South Carolina, where her campaign has heavily invested in a statewide staff and advertising.
"We are focused on carrying the ball to the goal line," said Zac Wright, Clinton's state campaign spokesman.
S.C. Republicans vote in their primary Jan. 19, while Palmetto State Democrats vote Jan. 26.
Obama, who captured the coveted Iowa caucuses for the Democrats, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won for the Republicans, are expected to do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But the once front-running Romney could come South with only a first-place finish in the largely ignored Wyoming caucuses.
"Romney will clearly need South Carolina," Ransom said, and for Edwards, "it would be over if he doesn’t win South Carolina."
With the early-state wins spread around for the Republicans, no clear direction emerging, and no one coming into the South with a clear head of steam, Giuliani's strategy of ignoring the states voting before Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" might prove to be a good one, Ransom said. "If he can pull off a victory in Florida, he would not have lost very much."
McCain South Carolina spokesman B.J. Boling discounted concerns that, even if McCain wins in New Hampshire today, he still won’t be able to win the Republican nomination because of finances.
"We've got the resources we need to win, and we will have them on Feb. 5," Boling said. "I'm sure we will have the resources."
The State
